I see the Kondratieff wave is back in fashion again -- it seemed a great idea when I read about it first, but now the absurdity of a supposed systematic explanation of economic data which span time periods longer than a human life strikes me very strongly.
We all love trends and neat explanations, see the likes of
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/3075/housing-boom.html
and
Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010, by Fred Harrison
but the trouble with all these analyses is that the world isn't that neat. We should have had a bigger correction in 2001/2002, if Alan Greenspan hadn't decided to inflate his way out of trouble in 2002. That might have sorted everything out temporarily at least, and would have thrown all these neat 18 year and 75 year cycle theories out of whack
A common-sense approach to Big Data
12 years ago
No comments:
Post a Comment